The Skyline Chili Crosstown Shootout is here. Our city's best sporting event. UC. Xavier. Both ranked. Both looking to pad NCAA Tournament resumes. One looking to continues its dominance over the other. One looking to reverse a two-decades long trend.
I'm ready. Are you ready? These guys sure look ready....
The annual UC/Xavier game is always accompanied by a myriad of questions. When should it be played? (In late January or early February, as it is this year.) Where should it be played? (On campus.) And once upon a time, for a brief moment, should the game be played? (That this was even discussed was, and remains, ridiculous.)
The event sparks debate, and fuels interest in college basketball, even from those who watch the sport - and their teams - casually. It hits the pause button on friendships, divides workplaces, settles wagers, and for some of us, it gives us a reason to eat even more Skyline than usual.
Even if the games themselves are usually not that good.
The hype and excitement surrounding the game typically exceeds what actually happens on the court. The average margin between the Bearcats and Musketeers over their last six meetings has been 14.5 points. Only one Shootout in that span was decided by less than ten points, and that one - XU's 59-57 win at Fifth Third two years ago - isn't exactly being shown on loop in Springfield.
We've arrived at a point where the programs are on relatively equal footing. Both are NCAA Tournament regulars. Neither's season is defined by just one game. Maybe that lends itself to a rare crosstown classic. Perhaps Xavier extends its string of wins over Cincinnati. Or UC might end its slide against the Muskies. We'll know by about 9:00 tonight.
What I do know is that there are there are some specific questions hovering over the game this season, and I will answer them....
How much, in the grand scheme of things, does this game matter?
I feel like a few years ago, we wore out the "has the game lost its luster" angle pretty well.
Wait, let me check....
Yes, in December of 2013 we beat that angle into the ground, and then then backed a steamroller over it. The theme of the 2013-14 game - the second of the two played at US Bank Arena - was about how the Crosstown Shootout didn't hold the grip on the collective imagination of the city.
Two years ago, the angle was "Hmm, neither of these teams are particularly good. Xavier's squad has no real identity, and the Bearcats can't score. Both are desperate, both could badly use a win to help get in the NCAA Tournament, but shit, predicting what's going to happen when these two teams play each other is like trying to predict what a Donald Trump Presidential campaign will be like." (Note: In February of 2015, Donald Trump had not yet begun to run for President. It was, regardless of your political leanings, a simpler time.)
All the while, we've attempted to put into context the game, the rivalry, what it means, and what to make of the atmosphere surrounding it. Is it the big deal it used to be? Have things cooled down too much? Does the series need someone who can stir emotions on both sides? This year, there's this from my friend Paul Daugherty....
A day from the Shootout, and I’ve decided the Big Game has evolved to the point where not even fans consider it the highlight of the season. I’m thinking if I asked 10 fans from each team if they’d rather have a Shootout W or a Sweet 16 appearance, 18 or so of ‘em would choose the Sweet 16. The other two would be serious OGs.
Am I right?
....The Game is still Big. But now we associate it with RPI rankings, not trophies.
His overall point is a good, fair one. Both programs are to the point where winning or losing the Shootout doesn't define their seasons. These teams this year will be judged by how they do once they've played each other, not what happens when they do.
But it's been that way for a while. The '06-'07 Bearcats, one of the most in-over-its-head teams in recent college basketball history, won the Crosstown Shootout, then proceeded to win exactly four more times. The '99-'00 UC team, one of the finest in program history, lost it, then went on to spend seven weeks ranked as the top team in the country. Last year's Xavier team, thought by many to be the most talented Xavier teams ever, beat the Bearcats rather handily. They're remembered more for how things unraveled three months later.
We do apply the grand scheme to what happens in this game. It's a chance at a nice win for both teams, a resume-builder, and one the selection committee won't punish either for losing.
But that too has been the case, for the most part, for years. Aside from Mick Cronin's first couple of seasons, and a handful of down Xavier years, the presence of XU on the schedule for UC and that of UC on the XU slate has been a positive for both programs. Cincinnati has appeared in 20 of the last 25 NCAA Tournaments. Xavier's been in 24 of the last 30. Neither program has had their name missing from the bracket because it played the other.
Yes, most any UC or Xavier fan would rather have massive postseason success over winning a regular season game, but why do those things have to be mutually exclusive. The goal is always championships and postseason advancement, but shouldn't there be significant mileposts along the way?
If the Bengals win the Super Bowl, and sweep the Steelers during the regular season in the process, wouldn't it be just a little more sweeter than had they won the title and lost to Pittsburgh twice?
Hell yes, the game matters. I know it does because of what I hear about the Musketeers from Bearcats fans, and what I hear about the Bearcats from Musketeers fans. Not just this week, but all year long, just to an amplified degree in the run-up to the game. I've been asked who's going to win this year's Shootout for months now, and I don't know anyone who considers themselves at least a casual fan who doesn't have an opinion on this year's game, who wins, and why.
But the main reason why I know it matters is because I've been lucky enough to attend every one of these games going back a long time, and I know what it feels like in whatever building the game is being played in those moments right before tipoff. Those few moments right before the ball gets thrown in the air are the best few moments on our sports calendar. Better than any Opening Day first pitch. Better than any kickoff. It's a combination of excitement, tension, dread, hopefulness, nervousness, and confident uncertainty. The vibe can be felt in living rooms, bars, dorms, and anywhere the game is being watched, and it's absolutely incredible to experience in person, regardless of your affiliation.
When it's not there anymore, I'll know the game doesn't matter the way it used to.
Who does the game mean more to?
The NCAA Tournament implications are one thing. Any March-caliber team could use as many good wins as possible, and UC and XU are no exception. The Bearcats have limited opportunities for quality wins. The Musketeers have plenty of them. Yet a UC loss would at least offset by a schedule that'd hardly put their tourney chances in jeopardy. A defeat for XU wouldn't exactly sink their season, but it'd put a higher premium on winning some of their tougher remaining games.
Forget all of that for a second....
Any good rivalry has fans of one looking down their noses at the other. Kentucky/Louisville. Bengals/Steelers. Ohio State/Michigan. Adam Jones/cops. Where there's competition, there's condescension, especially when foes are as familiar as the Bearcats and Musketeers. Snark and shade are as much a part of the Crosstown Shootout as the Bearcat and the Blue Blob. Show me a fan of one of these teams and I'll show you someone who's flung barbs at his friends - or even toward strangers - who root for the other. A buddy of mine sent me a picture last night of a blank space that apparently included all the current Bearcats who've beaten Xavier. I responded by sending him a picture that would get me fired if it went public.
Here's the thing though: If you're gonna do that, you better be better at something. At this moment, Xavier plays in the better conference, has the better arena, has had more postseason runs in recent years, and they've dominated the head-to-head series against UC. These are both very good programs led by quality coaches both will be adding to their long lists of NCAA appearances in two months, and most of what one does is independent of the other.
But a team can control, for the most part, its end of the head-to-head matchups. Xavier has won three straight, seven of nine, ten of 14, 12 of 17, and 14 of 20. Since the "Lenny Brown Game" in November of 1996, Xavier has beaten UC by two points six times, and two games have gone to overtime. But they've also won in recent seasons by 23, 17, and last year in a game they once led by 18, ten points. The Bearcats have had extenuating circumstances in some seasons, bad luck in others, and often they've just gotten beaten by good Xavier teams that simply played well enough to win against quality UC squads.
Anyway you look at it, Xavier has controlled the series.
For many - maybe most - UC fans, there's a "it's at home, we have (arguably) the better team, we're favored, and we're due, so if not now, then when"- type of feel to this year's game. There's also a sense that - given the inherent difficulty in being a road win and winning at the Cintas Center - that a loss this year likely means that we're talking about a five-game Cincinnati losing streak in the series after next year's game is played.
Fans of both schools like to talk. Fans of one school have the head-to-head results to back it up. If you like talking about how much better your team is, then at some point your team needs to back it up.
From that end, it's bigger for the Bearcats.
Who wins?
As I type this, I'm wearing a pair of old-school Philadelphia 76ers shorts, a t-shirt from a bar that I frequent, and a Reds hoodie, and a Columbus Blue Jackets hat. I look like an absolute mess, but I'm not wearing any UC gear, and so I'm coming from a place of complete objectivity.
This game is more difficult to assess than some are making it out to be. I believe that - right now, at least the Bearcats are the better team. But you don't want to get caught in the trap of thinking they're better than they are because of how infrequently they've been tested by really good teams.
Similarly, it's easy to bag on the Muskies after their recent three game losing streak. But they did just lose to three really good opponents packed within seven days of one another (even without Mo Watson, I wouldn't have thought the Blue Jays would get pounded by Georgetown, FWIW), and you don't want to go overboard in talking about their problems because most teams will have their flaws exposed against opponents like the ones XU just lost to.
There's a handful of keys...
*Kevin Johnson. He's one of two UC players who's plaued Xavier three times without a win. Like Troy Caupain, he's trying to avoid become one of the first Bearcat players to go 0-4 in the Shootout. Cincinnati's offense, improved from previous seasons, is at its best when Kevin is making shots. He's not good at creating them on his own, but he has teammates who can get him looks, and if he makes them, it opens up all the other ways the Bearcats can score. In UC's first nine games, Johnson made just six of 39 three-point shots - just 15.3%. In the ten games since, he's made 21 of 44 - 47.7%. The Bearcats are tougher to defend when he's scoring.
*Bench play. UC's bench is coming along nicely. They've gotten nice contributions at different points of the season from every substitute. Hell, even Quadri Moore had a big game last Saturday against Tulane. Jarron Cumberland has been the best player off the bench recently, contributing tangibly, but also standing out with his court awareness and high-basketball IQ.
Xavier's bench has been, well, not good. There's a ton of inexperience on both benches, and so we'll see if first-Shootout jitters plague either team, and given that it's always fair to expect this game to be called tight, whoever has the best players six through eight stands a really good chance of winning.
*The who's arguably best player on both teams has to be unarguably the best player on both teams. Edmond Sumner had a coming out party of sorts in last year's Shootout. He played a regular-season high 34 minutes, scored 11 points, and handed out five assists. 13 months later, there's legit NBA Draft talk surrounding him (with this year's class, he should stay), and when he's in the open-court and resolved to drive the ball toward the rim, he's can be a deadly scorer. When that happens, the offense looks as you'd expect an XU offense to look. When the ball stops moving, or when Ed is content to just lift threes, their offense grinds to a halt.
Much of what I just typed can be applied to Jacob Evans, BTW.
*Troy Caupain. No UC player has every played Xavier four times and lost all four games. It could happen to Kevin Johnson and it could happen to Troy. (Zack Tobler has been on UC's team for four years, but he's played one minute against the Musketeers) I love how Caupain has played recently, and if he channels added motivation into a big all-around performance, the Bearcats are going to be tough to beat.
If he presses, tries to do too much, and carries with him the weight of potentially going 0 for his career against XU, the Bearcats could be in trouble.
*JP Macura. Say whatever you want about Myles Davis, his depature, whether he should've been reinstated, or the timing of his short-lived reinstatement, but he was going to play a major role for this Xavier team, primarily handling and distributing the ball. (It's worth mentioning that Davis made 13 of his 19 shots, and seven of his ten threes, in his three games against UC) Some of those responsibilities will fall to JP, who was a turnover machine against Butler. At his best, he can find passing lanes that others can't. At his worst, he's throwing the ball to the other team. There's too little room for error in a game like tonight's.
*Free throw shooting. At just 69.5%, Xavier is ranked 172nd in the country in free throw percentage, and yet they're almost 100 places higher than UC, which is 271st at 66.4%. Yikes.
Both schools have good good games from the line recently...XU has made 72% or more in three of their last four, and the Bearcats just had a two-game stretch where they converted 85% of the time, but Xavier's woes against Creighton - 55% - are still too recent to think about when the Muskies go to the line, and the Bearcats have shot 65% or below in 11 of their 19 games.
If the game is officiated with quick whistles and fouls mount, whoever hits a higher percentage from the foul line has a good chance of winning.
Ok, that was more than a handful of keys.
I'm picking UC, mainly because I feel like they have the horses on offense to go on one or two game-changing runs, especially at home, and because I feel like XU's issues with the offense coming to a halt and sometimes not feeding the post can be seized upon by Cincinnati's D. The Bearcats have a team that seems better equipped to play the way the Muskies would like, and I've seen a little too much of the Muskies not being able to run offense and play as fluidly as you'd expect a typical Xavier team.
That bodes well for the Bearcats.
I challenge you to tell me right after the game ends that it didn't- and doesn't - matter.
Bearcats 70 Musketeers 65
Join us before today's game at Keystone Bar and Grill in Clifton, just a short walk from Fifth Third Arena. We'll be live, starting at 3:05 on ESPN1530.