Blog Of Football Guesses: (Brief) Super Bowl Edition

posted by Mo Egger, ESPN1530 - 

I waited until Super Bowl Sunday to post a Super Bowl guess because I'm very, very lazy and because I've never really had a feel for how this game is going to play out.

And honestly, the World Wide Web would continue on just fine if I didn't add to it my opinion as to who will win between the Eagles and Patriots.

But it is my job to offer last-minute lukewarm takes even when I don't feel that strongly about something, so here it goes...

I'm taking the Eagles and the points for the following reasons..

*Because Philly can make New England one-dimensional.

*Because I can't stop thinking about how creaky Brady looked for almost three quarters a year ago against an Atlanta defense that wasn't as good as the one he'll face today.

*Because Patriots Super Bowls are always close.

*Because New England's defense isn't nearly as good as the raw numbers would indicate.

I'm picking the Patriots to win the game outright because....

*They have an edge on special teams.

*Belichick will devise a plan to contain Zach Ertz.

*Nick Foles will not be able to recapture the magic of his NFC title game performance.

*The Eagles are not playing at home.

*It's hard for me to pick against the greatest coach and greatest quarterback of all-time when they're favored against a backup QB.

The playoffs have been miserable for me, with an against-the-spread record of 2-7-1.  Add that to my regular season totals and I'm 129-127-10, which means I will finish in the black, even if only slightly.

The guess...

Patriots 24 Eagles 21 (Philly +4.5)

Prop bets I love...

Brady Total completions: OVER 27

Super Bowl MVP: Brady -110

First quarter UNDER 9.5 points

Brady passing attempts: OVER 40

....and for good measure a teaser of Philly up to +10.5 and the over/under down to 42.5. 

My work here on this Super Bowl Sunday is done. Top this, JT....

Mo Egger

Mo Egger

Mo Egger delivers his unique take on sports on Cincinnati's ESPN 1530! Read more

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