I'm doing this as last minute as possible, not because I've been spending the weekend doing loads and loads of research, but because I had a goal on Saturday, and that goal was met.
I sought to spent ten consecutive hours watching basketball games. Thanks to my wife and daughter, as well as terrible weather and few dozen (or so it seemed) good and/or entertaining games at my disposal, I was able to gorge myself on hoops while doing very little besides ordering some quality takeout at a place that isn't paying for a plug.
So here we are late morning on Conference Championship Sunday. I'm sure you've been waiting impatiently.
Kansas City (-7) over Tennessee. I'll be up front with you: the number I like the most is under 51.5, even despite the fact that KC scored nearly that many points themselves last week against Houston. Since 2013, no home team has helped the under hit as often as the Chiefs, the Titans' strategy will be to shorten the game with Derrick Henry, and the weather isn't going to be conducive to offense. I went under at 52.5, and even thought it's come down by a point, I'd still be comfortable going below it.
I'll also lay the points with the home team. Yes, Henry is fantastic, but his workload the last three weeks has been insane (96 carries), and the Titans are playing in their fourth straight road game. I'll guess that the Chiefs don't start anywhere close to as slowly as they did last week, and if Mahomes and company get going and put KC way ahead, do you really want a chunk of money that matters to you resting on Ryan Tannehill having to throw?
Tennessee's run has been a blast to watch, and I've enjoyed both Henry's performances reminding me of what football was like when I was kid as well as Mike Vrabel's attempts at making vests a thing again, but I'm siding with the home team here.
San Francisco (-7.5) over Green Bay. The more prudent wager is likely to tease both home teams down, and I'm a little scared of the hook here, but I'm getting a team that has been cover masters against playoff teams since week ten (5-1 ATS against six playoff teams since, covering by an average of more than five and a half points), as well as a team that's gotten a key player back at every level of its defense with the return of Tartt, Alexander and Ford.
Here's a nugget from The Action Network:
In eight games with all three of those players in the lineup together, the 49ers have allowed 11.9 points per game. They went 8-0 straight up and 6-2 ATS in those games, with a staggering +14.9 ATS margin.artt, Alexander and Ford.
There's just too much to like about San Fran's defense to not wager on the home team here, and as good as Davante Adams was against Seattle last week, I'm betting against him repeating his 8-160-2 performance, and there's not enough variety in the Packers' offense to feel comfortable taking the points, even if most books with have the number at 8 by kickoff.
NFL Playoffs ATS: 5-3
Regular season NFL Mark ATS in 2019: 51-33-3
College Mark ATS in 2019: 46-37-1