My goal was to be the very last person on the internet to post his or her Super Bowl pick, and yet here we are. It is mid-afternoon on Super Bowl Sunday, I've calmed down from the state I was in after being at and leaving Fifth Third Arena last night, and the Chiefs and Niners are about to play for a trophy.
Here's the guess you've undoubtedly been waiting on.
San Francisco (+1.5) over Kansas City. I stilly fully expect the line to drop as we inch closer to kickoff, with the sharps coming in late minute on the 49ers after much of the public money as been on the Chiefs, but I bought the point and a half and even if I don't feel that strongly either way, I'm comfortable with my investment.
There's a slight Seattle/Denver and Denver/Carolina feel to this game. You might remember that prior to those two Super Bowls, a ton of bettors locked in the teams quarterbacked by Peyton Manning and Cam Newton, respectively, all but ignoring dominant defenses.
Vegas is telling you not to make the same mistake, making this game close to a pick 'em despite KC having the edge at quarterback and at the skill spots. The Niners can get to Mahomes with just four pass rushers, they've gotten healthy at every level of their defense since the regular season ended, and as dangerous as the Chiefs can be with their ability to strike suddenly, San Fran was the best team I watched all season
My heart says Kansas City, in large part because I'd love to see Travis Kelce get a ring, and because no Bengals fan should ever side with the 49ers, unless the team from Pittsburgh is involved.
My head says take the point and a half, while I gear up for a few days worth of "Cincinnati should draft Chase Young so they can have a pass rush like San Francisco's" takes.
Prop bets worth investing in....
Damian Williams over 3.5 catches.
Patrick Mahomes over 0.5 interceptions.
Emmanuel Sanders over 40.5 receiving yards.
Emmanuel Sanders over 4.5 receptions.
Blake Bell over 1.5 receiving yards.
Will the game go to overtime? Yes, at +750. If you think it will be close, why not take advantage of the value?
Will there be a safety? Yes, at +650.
Will there be a successful two point conversion? Yes, at +220.
Travis Kelce is Super Bowl MVP at +2000
NFL Playoffs ATS: 7-3
Regular season NFL Mark ATS in 2019: 58-33-3
College Mark ATS in 2019: 46-37-1