After watching the Reds not score a run over 22 innings, the least we can do is make some money this weekend.
NFL tilts of interest...
Jacksonville (+3) over Cincinnati. I'm only listing this game out of obligation. I have no feel for it, no confidence in it, and no real angle that can push me toward betting on either side. I've talked a lot about how this is a must-win game for Zac Taylor. At some point, a coach has to be judged on his ability to win games, and a team's progress has to get measured by how often it wins. The Bengals do not have an especially young roster - they're the 15th youngest team in the NFL - with a bunch of dudes in their second or third NFL contracts. They're getting fine play from their quarterback. They've had two close calls, and they've played three winnable games. If the win doesn't come on Sunday, then when will it? And if they don't beat Jacksonville and the losses begin to mount, how might things beging to unravel?
It's time for Zac Taylor's training wheels to come off.
If forced to pick one way or the other, you take the points. As smitten as we all are with Joe Burrow, Gardner Minshew has been more efficient this season, James Robinson has proven to be a more than capable back, and in order for me to wager on my favorite NFL team when they're favorites, they have to earn it. As a rule, I don't bet against the Bengals, but I wouldn't bet on them either.
I will throw a dime or two on under 49.5.
Seattle (-6.5) over Miami. Banged-up Miami secondary + what Josh Allen did to them last week + Russell Wilson in 2020 + oddsmakers accounting too much for travel = easy Seahawks cover.
New Orleans (-4) over Detroit. I can't imagine the Lions will figure out a way to stop Alvin Kamara, regardless of whether or not Michael Thomas plays.
Chicago (+3) over Indianapolis. The Colts are fools' gold, and the Bears just upgraded at quarterback. Under 43.5 is in play as well.
Tampa Bay (-7) over the Chargers. I liked this a lot more at -4.5, even with the Bucs not having Chris Godwin. Brady is getting all the pub, but Tampa Bay's defense will be why his team covers.
College tilts of interest...
Cincinnati (-21) over USF. It'd be fun to watch the Bearcats actually blow out a conference opponent. If it's going to happen this season, this is when it does.
Texas A&M (+17) over Alabama. If the Aggies prevent Jaylen Waddle from swinging the field, they keep it close-ish.
Ole Miss (+6.5) over Kentucky. Guessing UK wins the game, but too much Elijah Moore and an open Lane Kiffin playbook helps the Rebels cover.
Arkansas (17.5) over Mississippi State. I'll also go first half over 34.5
Clemson first half -16.5 over Virginia. The 28 Clemson has to lay for the game screams backdoor cover. I'll wager on the Tigers starting fast, then resting dudes.
NFL ATS in 2020: 9-5
College football ATS in 2020: 8-4-1