Blog Of Football Guesses: Two Cincinnati Covers?


Know what I should start doing? Blogging.

NFL tilts of interest...

Cincinnati (+1.5) over Washington. I have no reason why I'm picking the Bengals. A big part of me hates this matchup. The Washington Football Team has an offense that's gone over 400 yards in its last two games, and even if they're lousy at running the ball - 30th in rushing yards per game - the Bengals are crummy against the run.

DC also has a stout passing defense. The Bengals don't have a stout anything.

But they do have Joe Burrow. I say he's due for a bounceback from last week. BTW, it's okay to say that Joe had a bad game against the Steelers. Some seem reluctant to do so.

Mainly, I say it's time for the training wheels to come off for Zac Taylor. He needs to start winning football games. No better time than when three crappy NFC East teams show up on the schedule.

The Bengals have gone without a win in their last 18 road games, but they're solid bets to cover on the road, going 11-7 ATS. I say they cover the point and a half, and even when the line opened with the Bengals laying a point, I was willing to lay it.

Miami (-3.5) over Denver. The Dolphins get a chance to face a dreadful Denver defense and an opportunity to feast on a Broncos offense that leads the NFL in giveaways, equipped with a defense that's pretty good at taking the ball away.

Philadelphia (+3.5) over Cleveland. Good buy-low spot for the Eagles, who are getting healthier. I don't think the Browns can cover Zach Ertz, and I don't think they can run the ball against a defense that's 10th in the NFL in rushing efficiency.

Atlanta (+5) over New Orleans. I had the Falcons even before we found out that Taysom Hill will be starting instead of Jameis Winston. I'd take this down to 3.5.

Green Bay (+2.5) over Indianapolis. Aaron Rodgers is having maybe his best season, and the Packers are pretty decent on the ground as well. Philip Rivers is washed and the Colts are 28th in the NFL in rushing success. I'd lay points if I had to. Fortunately, I don't.

Tampa Bay (-3) over LA Rams. Not having Andrew Whitworth is going to be very bad news for a team going up against a blitz-heavy opponent that's also great against the Run. I'd take this up to 4.5, maybe 5.

College tilts of interest....

Cincinnati (-6) over UCF. Full disclosure: I'm going to wait to see if this line falls before kickoff. My money is on UC forcing a couple of rare Dillon Gabriel turnovers, and I love how Desmodn Ridder is playing right now too much to wager against him, especially against a leaky UCF defense. If the Bearcats don't turn it over, they win.

I also like the over 63.5.

Michigan/Rutgers over 54.5. I'd take this over 59.5.

Kentucky/Alabama under 57.5. UK will shorten the game just effectively enough. They're already averaging the fewest offensive plays per game of any team in the SEC. I think they're just good enough defensively to like the under here.

Oregon (-17) over UCLA. The Ducks are 2-0 ATS despite bein -5 in turnovers. Imagine what happens whey that starts to go in the other direction.

Ohio State (-20.5, first half -10.5, team total 42.5) over Indiana. IU's football revival has been fun. The Buckeyes just have too much speed on offense, and as good as the Hoosiers have been, they've won against team that don't have a pass rush. OSU hung 51 on them in Bloomington a year ago. The total could be higher on Saturday.

NFL ATS in 2020: 24-17-1

College ATS in 2020: 28-17-1

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