LOTN: NFL Week 5, College Week 6.


As heard on ESPN1530's Locks of the Night, presented by Cincy Shirts...

NFL tilts...

Miami +10 over Tampa Bay. The public foolishly rushed to out all of its money on Tom Brady last Sunday night. Don't be like the public again. This line is too high.

New Orleans -2 over Washington. I'll take the defense that isn't underachieving.

Carolina -3.5 over Philly. And buy it now in case the Panthers announce before kick that McCaffrey is playing.

Cleveland +1.5 over the Chargers. Some will make this about Baker and his bum shoulder vs. Justin Herbert. I'll make it about a solid running game vs. a shaky run defense

Dallas -7 over the Giants. It will only feel like these teams play each other nine times this season.

FWIW...The Cincinnati/Green Bay line is a stay-away. Simply grabbing the three points with the home team feels lazy, and simply running with the Packers because, well, they're the Packers seems equally so. There hasn't been much not to like about the way the Bengals' defense is playing, but this is a step up in competition.

At the same time, I'm too smitten right now with Joe Burrow to bet against him.

So I won't.

What I will do is lay a few props...

Burrow over 1.5 TD passes.

Chase over 65.5 receiving yards.

Davante Adams over 92.5 receiving yards.

There's also an NFL teaser I'm in love with. You can get it by listening to Friday's Cincy 3:60 on the ESPN1530.com Podcast Page.

College tilts...

Ole Miss -5.5 over Arkansas. Don't let last week fool you.

Florida -38 over Vanderbilt. I might play this up to -52.

Georgia -15.5 over Auburn.

UConn -3.5 over UMass. This is the worst college football matchup of 2021. But money won on this one spends just as well as money won on the others.

Iowa -1.5 over Penn State. Sorry, Kelly Rippin.

UCF -10 over ECU. This line is a total overreaction to last week's results. Pirates should be at least two TD dogs.

Also....Notre Dame/Virginia Tech under 47 points.

Cincinnati/Temple is a stay away, as well. The Owls have been cover monsters in recent years, they have an intriguing quarterback, and they just have a knack of playing UC tougher than anyone expects.

The Bearcats will win. Likely handily. But if you're ready to lay more than four touchdowns on a short week in a quintessential letdown spot, then you're ballsier than I am.

I'm likely to take the under 54 play, and while I won't do this, I could understand someone throwing some dough on the Owls covering +17 in the first half.

NFL tilts ATS in 2021: 14-9

College tilts ATS in 2021: 21-12.


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